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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.